As far as litmus tests go, facing the All Blacks in Eden Park is THEE test for any rugby team (oh, pipe down football with your "Cold, Wet, Tuesday Night in Stoke" equivalent). Unbeaten in Auckland since 1994, haven't lost there to the Springboks since 1937 (you know, a year BEFORE Adolf Hitler was voted as Time's "Man of the Year"), it is no wonder Kiwi fans call it the "Garden of Eden" - wait, don't the Cape Crusaders call Newlands that? This Springbok team seems to believe that they have what it takes, but this will be a test that shows how close/far we are to the top. After smashing their voodoo in Brisbane against Australia last week, can they do it on a cold, wet... You know the rest.
Smells Like Team Spirit
There is a vibe of optimistic confidence on the Bok-supporting side of Twitter, belief that we can get our first win in New Zealand since 2009. Is it justified? Well, after probably the most complete performance by the Springboks last week in Brisbane since the 2009 glory days, you have to feel that there is reason for confidence. Oh, and how many wins do we have? 9 in a row?
What is most noticeable is the great team spirit and unity that the Class of 2013 seem to have. That team spirit huh? That quirky, almost as lame as the "Grey handshake" "transfer of the heart" celebration the Boks do after every try is probably its most telling sign of unity. If that celebration ever stops (and is not replaced by some sort of Juan de Jongh/Gio Aplon dance), we should know that there are problems with the vibe in the Boks. Well, long may the team spirit stay - I might even start trying it with my mates. No? Okay.
The Bok scrum has taken to the scrum laws like Coenie Oosthuizen has taken to a drinks special at the Mystic Boer in Bloemfontein, giving former zombies Beast Mtawarira and Jannie du Plessis energy that they desperately lacked in 2012. Meyer has gone for extra penalties horse power in the scrum by picking Flip van der Merwe to pair up with Eben Etzebeth in order to exploit a vulnerable Kiwi scrum. But they sacrifice the lineout nous that Juandre Kruger provides, which could be used to exploit starting hooker Dane Coles' throwing. The loose forward trio was immense in Brisbane, with Duane Vermeulen finally announcing himself on the world stage. But Kieran Read and co will pose a different challenge to those passive Aussies who "rucked" as if they were having an anti-war in Syria protest.
The backline has improved beyond recognition when it comes to taking chances and making use of the good ball the forwards give to them - could that all be contributed to Willie le Roux? Well, Morne Steyn standing much flatter, and distributing well helps, along with Jean de Villiers being back to his attacking best and JJ Engelbrecht offering his great running ability at 13. Steyn and Ruan Pienaar might well be in their element in a wet Auckland, giving them opportunity to kick for territory. Bryan Habana is still Habana-ing out there on the left wing and even Kirchner has transformed some of his critics to form a Zane-train! By the way, Willie, we need to talk about that failed pirouette you did after your try in Brissy...
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| "Ohhhh, I wanna dance with somebody!" |
But Before You Uncork that Champagne...
It was only 3 weeks ago that we had to endure Mendoza Part II. It looks like the Boks cannot have 2 great test matches on 2 consecutive Saturdays under Heyneke Meyer. In 2013, great performances against Italy and Argentina in Soweto were followed by powderpuff efforts against Scotland and Argentina in Mendoza respectively. And remember how those wins in last year's End of Year Tour cured your insomnia? There are still weaknesses to this Bok team; we seem impotent against teams that actually compete against us at the rucks (like Scotland and Argentina), our kicking has the tendency of being aimless at times (yes, I am looking at you, Ruan Pienaar), JJ's defensive method resembles a nervy teenager trying to hug a girl on the first date (so help him against Ma'a Nonu or "The Bus" Savea), the Ruan Pienaar pause when he clears the ball from the ruck (it is equal to a Jacob Zuma speech pause). These are the marks of a young team still growing together - a team that is not quite ready to be the top dog?
Oh and, we are facing the All Blacks. You know, the guys in 2012 who were the best, most balanced and clinical rugby side I have seen in my 19 years of existence. That team could beat you in a million-and-one ways and had no weakness to speak of, and the 2013 batch is not far from that high standard. This All Blacks team has 4 players with undisputed "best in the world" status (Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read, Dan Carter and Conrad Smith) while the rest have valid claims to being close to that standard. Returns to the side for Owen Franks, Ma'a Nonu and Liam Messam do offset the absence of Sir Richie. Owen will shore up a scrum that was outgunned by Argentina last Saturday, but a scrum that still has the most tightheads (3) in the competition. Whitelock and Retallick are a combination that offers lineout security, great ball carrying ability and immense work-rate. The two are the competition's top tacklers, averaging around 13 tackles a game each. What the team loses in McCaw's greatness will be made up (in part of course) by Messam's energy and sheer physicality in the tackle area, Sam Cane's ball carrying ability and Read's freakishly amazing ability. Liam Messam is so awesome, that his Chiefs team mates have a song about him!
Support for Aaron Smith's claim as the best number 9 in the world seems to grow with each test - find me another scrumhalf that can clear a ruck quicker. The Nonu-Smith centre combo will see a big red flag at JJ's channel. There's not many better than Israel Dagg, Julian Savea and Ben Smith in breaking the line and finishing attacks with 6 tries, 2 try assists and 9 linebreaks between them in the tournament. The battle from the kicking tee between Carter and Steyn is hard to call, but could be where the game is lost (just ask Steyn last year).
But what about last Saturday's game in the rain against Argentina in Hamilton? Sure, they probably tried to force that last pass too much, were outscrummed by the Pumas and they did not have it all their own way in the lineouts when Coles came on. But they still won and scored 3 tries, managed to get a tighthead of their own in the scrums (while not conceding one) and will welcome Owen Franks back for Saturday. The All Blacks have developed a knack of scoring almost immediately after the opposition have scored, which the Boks must find a way to stop to build up pressure on them. You say the All Blacks have not been as good in 2013? I say look at the 2nd test vs France where they shut out the French in a 30-0 win, or the attacking masterclass they gave in the 2nd half of their 47-22 victory against Australia. Players over the hill? Sure the likes of Carter, Nonu, Tony Woodcock and Conrad Smith are not as sprightly as they used to be, but are their counterparts in Green and Gold better players than they are? No Richie McCaw? Any team would miss one of the best players ever, and Sam Cane is no like-for-like replacement, but he aint bad. A surprising selection by coach Steve Hansen was starting Dane Coles and dropping Andrew Hore, who is expected to retire from international rugby this year. This is certainly Coles' biggest test start and his weakness in throwing into lineouts and scrumming will be tested to the limit by the Springboks.
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| There is no crying against the Springboks, Dane. |
Battle of the Tape
Player-for-Player, this judge would award it 9-4 to the All Blacks with the Springboks only winning the battles between Bismarck du Plessis and Coles, Etzebeth and Retallick, Francois Louw and Sam Cane and Bryan Habana against Julian Savea with dead heats between the Beast and Woodcock and Jannie against Franks. Experience counts, right? Well the All Blacks win here with 635 starting caps (and 156 caps on the bench - Keven Mealamu providing the bulk of those with 106 caps) compared to the Springboks 582 caps (with 131 on the bench).
In the lineouts, the Boks have opted to go without Kruger but they will still feel that they are favourites with Coles and Mealamu throwing in/hoping the ball does not land in Etzebeth's hands. The scrum will be a titanic battle, especially with Owen Franks returning. But the weak scrumming power that Coles offers (compared to a Hore or Mealamu) gives the Boks a slight advantage here as well. The kicking battle in the rain will be vitalin order to dictate which team will win the territorial battle. Dan Carter and Morne Steyn are 2 masters of tactical kicking. Dagg is a very intelligent kicker, while Kirchner is very familiar with putting foot to ball, but the game could be won by the team that puts the most pressure on the scrumhalves when they kicking. And will the Boks be able to stamp their authority on the aerial duel against the All Black back 3? I doubt it.
The Boks have players that can make a greater impact on their bench. Adriaan Strauss is world class, Coenie epitomises impact, Kruger brings mobility while Siya Kolisi brings extra power, Jano Vermaak brings crisp service and a good running game, Jan Serfontein has shown that he can hold his own at test level and Pat Lambie is a master at playing Angry Birds on his ipad while waiting on the bench. In comparison, Steve Luatua will be a great option to bring on when the game opens up with his great running and ball skills, Tawera Kerr-Barlow is probably even quicker and more of a threat than Vermaak on attack, Beauden Barrett's boot and running ability is more than useful while the experience of Mealamu could be telling. Except for Mealamu, the 7 other players on the All Black bench only have 50 caps between them. Advantage Bokke
So who will win?
The game will be won in the rucks and what platform the forwards give the backs, unfortunately it could be up to the ref as to who holds that advantage. Romain Poite was the referee in Mm-bom-be-la when the Scots interfered with Bok ball at the ruck, and the Boks will do well to learn from that previous experience. South Africa will also do well to learn from what England last year and France in the first test this year did against the All Blacks when it comes to committing numbers and counter-rucking to expose the few people the Kiwis commit to rucks in attack. If Poite is true to form, he will allow cheating a contest in the rucks, which probably favours the All Black team (judging by the Boks experiences this year). But is Coles the ball winner that Andrew Hore is? Is Sam Cane as influential as Richie McCaw? Will the All Blacks force the passes in the rain on Saturday like they did against Argentina?
If this game was played at anywhere but Eden Park, I'd be confident in predicting a Springbok win, with the advantage they hold in the set piece, watertight defence and superior bench, but Eden Park and the class that the All Blacks have is too much to ignore. The Springboks might be just a year off from being able to do it "on a cold, wet Saturday night in Auckland", or my #PredictionCurse could work a charm for the men in green and gold.
