Super Rugby 2013 Preview: South African Conference

In my third and final Super Rugby preview blog, I look closely at the teams in the South African Conference.



It will be a battle indeed!

With all the criticism of Heyneke Meyer and the Springboks last season, it is easy to forget that the South African Conference contributed 3 teams (Bulls, Sharks and Stormers) to the 6-team knockout stages, had one (the Stormers) at the top of the overall log in the regular season and had another (the Sharks) contest in the final! But on the other side of the log, the Lions were rock bottom of the overall log, with only 3 wins in the whole season.

The disappointing results and performances of the Lions last season (and, to be frank, in seasons before that) has meant that the Lions have been removed from the competition by the South African Rugby Union (SARU) in favour of the Southern Kings, a franchise representing the Eastern and Southern Cape region, who will play their matches in Port Elizabeth at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. You could write a book about the circumstances leading to the promotion of the Kings and how SARU has messed this situation up for the Lions and Kings alike, but this blog will focus more on what will happen on the rugby field. Safe to say, there are a lot of pissed off people in Johannesburg!

What will add some drama to the SA Conference is the threat of a promotion/relegation match against the Lions at the end of the Super Rugby season for the team that finishes at the bottom of the SA Conference. While the Kings are the overwhelming favourites to finish bottom, the Cheetahs and even the Bulls will have to be weary as well, especially if injury strikes on their influential senior players. The Cheetahs will be looking for more consistency and to build on the fantastic Australasian tour they had last season. The Bulls will know that if luck goes their way, they could finish top of the Conference, but if they are unlucky, they could finish bottom as well. The Stormers and Sharks will be expecting to finish top of the Conference (or even the overall log), and gaining home advantage for the playoff matches in order to finally win that elusive Super Rugby title. 5 teams at different phases of their development and with different expectations, hoping that they (at the very least) avoid the South African wooden spoon. This Conference will be a do-or-die affair!

BULLS

Hougaard was all dressed up with nowhere to go!

 Last Year: A season that started with relatively modest expectations ended with the Bulls beaten in the playoffs - and it could easily have ended with the Bulls topping the overall log. After losing over 500 caps of Super Rugby experience, with the likes of Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Fourie du Preez and Danie Rossouw moving on, the three-time champions were expected to struggle through this year's competition. But the Bulls got off to a great start in the campaign, and were even topping the overall log in Round 12. But 2 losses to the Stormers and 2 wins in the last 6 rounds meant that the Bulls dropped from top and just about snuck into 5th place, thanks to a bonus point win against the Lions in the last round. The Bulls then travelled to Christchurch for their playoff game, where they were completely outclassed by the Crusaders.  While players and fans alike should be proud of making it into the playoffs in the first season of a new era at Loftus, the Bulls know at the back of their mind that the Conference was there for the taking. 

Key Players: More than ever, it is time for captain Pierre Spies to step up and lead from the front this season. His work rate and effectiveness on the field has to improve, not only for the team's sake but for his own Bok aspirations as well, because Duane Vermeulen and Ryan Kankowski have leapfrogged him in the Springbok 8th man pecking order. Hopefully Spies is not used just as a crash-ball option in attack, but also as a runner in the centre channel where his power and athleticism can be more effective. The Bulls conceded the most points out of the teams that made the knockout stages last season, and a reason for that could be the lack of a fetcher for most of the competition. The flank combination of Dewald Potgieter and Jacques Potgieter lacked versatility and dynamism at the end of the season, due to both players playing in a similar way. With Deon Stegmann finally injury-free, the Bulls now have a fetcher that can slow down opposition ball in the rucks and even make a few vital steals when the team is under pressure. This will allow the Potgieters to continue their jobs as human wrecking balls, giving more balance to the loose trio. Watch out for Arno Botha as well this season, who could be used off the bench as a ball carrying, high energy impact player later in the game. The lock pairing of Juandrè Kruger and Flip van der Merwe was one of the best in the competition last season, as they offered safe options in the lineout. Flip contributed by bulldozing through rucks and mauls and Kruger was a helpful ball carrier in loose play. Chiliboy Ralepelle, who probably had his best season last season, will be looking to continue that form this season with his his work-rate and pilfering skills. Young and dynaminc Callie Visage, brought from the Lions, will be Chiliboy's back up hooker. A weakness for the Bulls last season was penalties conceded, and the discipline of props Dean Greyling and Werner Kruger in the scrums and in general play must surely improve if the Bulls have any title aspirations. The pair conceded 52 penalties between them and were 2nd and 4th for most penalties conceded respectively.

In the backs, the country's eyes will be on the halfbacks Francois Hougaard and Mornè Steyn for different reasons. Hougaard wants to prove to the country and the Bok coach Heyneke Meyer that he is not just a talented utility player, but a scrumhalf that has aspirations to be the best in the world. While Hougaard's decision-making, box kicking and passing could improve, nobody can deny how dangerous of a runner he is from broken play and around the fringes. Steyn will be moving to France after this Super Rugby campaign and will be looking for some sort of redemption from the bad season he had with the Boks. Handrè Pollard and Louis Fouchè will be looking for chances to prove that they are the heirs to Steyn's 10 jersey. The centre combination of Wynand Olivier and Lions loanee Lionel Mapoe promises much in terms of physicality and attacking potential. Both are hard running centres and hopefully Mapoe's presence could help the Bulls backline from being similar to a turnstile in defence. Jan Serfontein, last year's IRB u20 Player of the Tournament (at only 19 years old!), will be looking to make the huge step up from age grade rugby to Super Rugby. JJ Engelbrecht, who's attacking play at centre impressed many, might be utilised more in the wing this season with the acquisition of Mapoe. Him, the experienced Akhona Ndungane and Bjorn Basson (tied for most tries in the tournament last season) are two very good finishers and are experts at winning balls from the air, should Steyn employ kick-chase tactics. The ever-dependable (but much-criticised) Zane Kirchner will be a key player from the back for the Bulls. While he is not as special as Israel Dagg, his ability to do the basics really well is an asset for the Bulls and Boks alike.

"All I want is a little respect!"

This Is the Season. . . That Frans Ludeke is put to the test

Funny that I am writing this about a coach that has won this competition twice already, but this will be a season where Ludeke's expertise will be tested. Last season he lost the majority of his senior players, but still managed to get the Bulls through to the playoffs. This season he faces a different task completely, with expectations increased from last season, more potentially in playoff contention and losing the majority of his coaching and management staff (including forwards coach Johann van Graan, backline coach Ricardo Loubscher and defence coach John McFarland) to Heyneke Meyer and the Springboks. Now Pine Pienaar has taken over the defence and Bulls legend Victor Matfield will be coaching the forwards and coordinating the attack. With such an inexperienced coaching panel, can Ludeke make it work? Ludeke has also pointed out that the lack of squad rotation was the reason the performances of the Bulls tailed off near the end of the competition and has vowed to rotate more and change things in terms of player conditioning. Ludeke's biggest test though will be trying to get the best out of his underperforming stars such as Spies, Hougaard and Steyn, who will be vital to the Bulls campaign for the playoffs.

Slaughtering the Bulls: There are probably two theories as to how to beat the Bulls. One is to front up to their forwards by gaining parity in the set pieces, stopping their massive ball carriers from going over the advantage line and making their pack go backwards. This renders Hougaard and Steyn ineffective and the Bulls usually have no answer for this if it works. This worked very well for the Sharks and Stormers last season. The other theory is to make the game have as high a tempo as possible (with quick taps and quick lineouts to stay away from the Bulls strong points, like set pieces) and make the heavy Bulls forwards run around the field the whole game to tire them out, which is what the Blues did at Loftus last season. The problem is the plan could backfire at Loftus, because it is in high altitude and players not from there tire easier. In both theories there are a few constants: attack the Bulls scrum which is known to concede penalties, play with a fetcher that can disrupt the Bulls momentum in attack and steal the ball from the Bulls one-off runners, attack the Bulls fringe defence which is usually slow and lazy, big loose forwards and centres can attack Steyn's channel and test his suspect defence, and make the Bulls play in their territory, as their attack is far less likely to break your defence down from their territory.

Prediction: 8th (3rd in South African Conference)
The Bulls are part of a pack of about 6 teams that could potentially make the playoffs, but could also languish outside of the top 10 if they suffer many injuries. The Bulls have forwards that can dominate the set piece, control the rucks and mauls, a backline full of try-scorers (top points scorers in the South African Conference last year, and a 80% kicker like Mornè Steyn who accumulates points very easily (2nd highest points scorer in the competition last season when his kicking was less than 80%). But this young squad probably won't perform in the consistency required to qualify for the playoffs. It could be an up-and-down season for the franchise, and fans may have to get used to Ludeke explaining that the team is still in a "rebuilding phase" this season.

Squad: Akhona Ndungane, Arno Botha, Bjorn Basson, Bongi Mbonambi, Callie Visagie, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Clayton Blommetjies, Dawie Steyn, Dean Greyling, Deon Stegmann, Dewald Potgieter, Flip van der Merwe, Francois Hougaard, Francois Venter, Frik Kirsten, Grant Hattingh, Handrè Pollard, Jan Serfontein, Jano Vermaak, Jacques Potgieter, Jacques du Plessis, JJ Engelbrecht, Juandrè Kruger, Jürgen Visser, Lionel Mapoe, Louis Fouchè, Marcel van der Merwe, Mornè Mellett, Mornè Steyn, Paul Willemse, Pierre Spies,  Shaun Adendorff, Tony Jantjies, Travis Ismaiel, Ulrich Beyers, Werner Kruger, Wiaan Liebenberg, Wilhelm Steenkamp, Willie Wepener, William Small-Smith, Wynand Olivier, Zane Kirchner.

Teams that they don't Play: Chiefs and Force

CHEETAHS

Captain Fantastic on the prowl again!

Last Year: A great start to the campaign by the Cheetahs was undermined by losses at home in the second half of the competition, which killed off their hopes of making the playoffs. Setting off to Australasia with two home losses, expectations were not high, but the Cheetahs performed well overseas, returning with 2 wins from 4 in their Australasian tour and were a dark horse to make the playoffs with so many home matches remaining, but the Cheetahs only won 3 more matches out of 10 in South Africa, with a huge turning point coming when Johan Goosen got injured against the Highlanders. The Cheetahs were not the same team after that, only winning against the Waratahs when Goosen was out, underlining the importance of the then 20 year old to the team.

Key Players: As mentioned before, Cheetahs fans will be hoping Johan Goosen will stay injury free this tournament. Goosen's all round game is important to the Cheetahs, as it gives this free running team structure when it needs it and Goosen's decision making is usually correct as to whether to run and unleash his dangerous outside backs or to kick downfield. Francois Brummer will be the one relied on to play at flyhalf if Goosen goes down. Bigger does not always equate to better in Bloemfontein, shown by the comparatively small centre combination of Johann Sadie and Robert Ebersohn. While it could get difficult in defence for these two, the running lines and quick feet of both centres could cut up any defence to shreds in this competition. Sadie especially will be looking for some redemption after his failed one-year stint at the Bulls. If the team needs any size at centre, then the big (but limited in skillsand brains) JP Nel could be called upon. Willie le Roux established himself as one of the most dangerous counter-attackers in the competition last season and will be looking to punish more teams that kick the ball aimlessly down his throat. Amidst all this attacking talent, the tall but reliable Hennie Daniller will have a part to play this season if cool heads are needed too. After a stellar Currie Cup debut season, a lot will be expected of the dangerous Raymond Rhule who will be tested at this level, but has the composure, the power and the gas to make a success out of it. The Cheetahs are blessed with skill, experience and depth at scrumhalf, with 2011 Super Rugby Player of the year Sarel Pretorius making a return from the Waratahs, the impressive youngster Piet van Zyl and the dependable Tewis de Bruyn fighting for the scrumhalf shirt. See below why the Cheetahs are one of the most exciting teams in the competition!

Captain Adriaan Strauss had a massive breakthrough season internationally and will be expected to be the one leading the team from the front this year. The man is everywhere on the rugby field, making runs, putting in big tackles and effecting turnover ball from the ruck. The loss of WP Nel will be felt, but in Trevor Nyakane, the Cheetahs have one of the best young tightheads in the country. Nyakane has impressed when he has played and will be looking to the swashbuckling Coenie Oosthuizen to guide him this season as well. Coenie will be hoping his neck injuries are a thing of the past so that he can continue destroying tightheads, carrying ball, scoring tries and giving Heinrich Brüssow a run for his money for stealing balls in rucks. Brüssow will be motivated by the success of Francois Louw in the Springboks last season to prove that he is one of the best fetchers in the Southern Hemisphere. With big ball carrier and impact player, Ashley Johnson gone, a lot will be asked of Phillip van der Walt and Justin Downey to try and fill the gap left by Johnson by taking up more responsibility with ball carrying, making more tackles and hitting rucks.

This Is the Season. . . That the Cheetahs contest for the playoffs.
They were threatening to do it in the early part of last season, but could this be the season that the Cheetahs sneak into the playoffs? They have a similar fixture list to last season, with one home game against the Sharks before jetting off to Australasia to face the Chiefs, Highlanders, Waratahs and the Force. 3 wins from those first 5 matches, and they will be set to compete, with 7 home matches and 4 other matches in the rest of South Africa remaining. If the Cheetahs can win at least 7 of those, history states that they will at least be in contention. It is do-able! But for the Cheetahs to have any hope of making it that far, the likes of Strauss, Oosthuizen, Brüssow, Pretorius, Goosen, Ebersohn and le Roux will have to stay fit for the majority of the season, and their defence has to improve too. Coach Naka Drotske will be the one tasked with managing these key players effectively and hopefully fixing a defence that conceded an average of 29 points a match. Far too much if a team wants to make the playoffs

Mauling the Cheetahs: No team loves running the ball more from anywhere on the field than the Cheetahs,  and not many teams could beat the Cheetahs if the game becomes very loose (ask the Hurricanes last season). This means that teams need to slow down the tempo of the game and keep the game as tight as possible. With the losses of George Earle and Izak van der Westhuizen, the Cheetahs locks aren't as strong as they used to be, which means that teams could hurt them in the set pieces as well (especially the lineouts). If you deny the Cheetahs ball for most of the game and take Brüssow out of the equation by running into him and making him the tackler, the Cheetahs defence will give you opportunities to score. Large Fruean, Nonu type centres will be fancying their chances of running through a 10-12-13 combination of Goosen-Sadie-Ebersohn. But be warned, if you kick the ball down aimlessly and give the Cheetahs backline players space, they will hurt you!

Prediction: 12th (4th in the South African Conference)
A lot has to go right for the Cheetahs to get into the top 6, and they have to rely on injury-prone players such as Brüssow, Oosthuizen and Goosen in order to get far in this tournament. Chances are they will have injuries to key players and they will have to rely on what is a wafer-thin squad in order to do the business. If things get really bad, the Cheetahs could find themselves in a dog-fight with the Kings to avoid the promotion/relegation match. But with the experience of winning two matches in Australasia last season and the run of 11 matches in a row in South Africa from round 7 onwards, the Cheetahs should get enough wins to avoid bottom of the SA log, but not enough to get into the business end of the competition. The Cheetahs will probably be the worst of a bunch of teams looking to make the playoffs.

Squad: Laurens Adriaanse, Ryno Barnes, Ryno Benjamin, Jannie Boshoff, Francois Brummer, Heinrich Brüssow, Hennie Danniller, Tewis de Bruyn, Lodewyk de Jager, Rossouw de Klerk, Robert Ebersohn, Joubert Engelbrecht, Andries Ferreira, Barry Geel, Johan Goosen, Rocco Jansen, Pieter Labuschagne, Ligtoring Landman, Willie le Roux, Hercu Liebenberg, Martin Muller, JP Nel, Dusty Noble, Trevor Nyakane, Caylib Oosthuizen, Coenie Oosthuizen, Sarel Pretorius, Boom Prinsloo, Davon Raubenheimer, Raymond Rhule, Johann Sadie, Nico Scheepers, Marnus Schoeman, Riaan Smit, Adriaan Strauss, Francois Uys, Philip van der Walt, Torsten van Jaarsveld, Pieter van Zyl, Waltie Vermeulen, Elgar Watts.

Teams that they don't Play: Crusaders and Brumbies

KINGS

Background: The Southern Kings represent the Eastern and the Southern Cape region of South Africa and this will be their first foray into the competition, amid a cloud of controversy. With SARU promising them entrance into the Super Rugby tournament in 2013, SARU (after failed attempts to enter 6 South African teams into the competition) decided to relegate the worst placed team of last season, the Lions in favour of the Kings, without any promotion/relegation match, which left the Lions fuming. But SARU has not made things easier for the Kings, with them not being exempt from relegation this season if they finish bottom of the South African conference, and only being allowed 3 foreign players in their squad in their first season (although they have put in 5 in their squad), it will be a backs-against-the-wall effort. 

Key Players: Not too many players in the squad have as much Super Rugby experience as captain Luke Watson, who was a hit at Bath in England, before coming back to help his home province. The loose trio he forms with Daniel Adongo - a player that impressed for Counties Manukau in the ITM Cup in New Zealand last season - and Tomas Leonardi - a 15 capped Argentine international 8th man - is formidable at the least. Former Blitzbok Mpho Mbiyozo adds depth and some dynamism to the loose forward department. The talented Bandise Maku has also come back home to help out the Kings from the Lions and his ball carrying and accurate throwing in the lineouts will be needed. Steven Sykes is an experienced campaigner at lock signed from the Sharks, looking to lead a young, inexperienced tight five through this campaign. Prop stocks are relatively bare, with the Kings having to rely on journeymen such as Ross Geldenhuys from the Cheetahs, former Stormer Schalk Ferreira and former Bull Jaco Engels.

At least the Kings can call upon the flyhalf that won the Currie Cup final for Western Province last year, the Greek god Demetri Catrakilis. He has been steadily improving during his time in Cape Town and now that he knows he is the first choice flyhalf, he can express himself more and take more responsibility in a team where people are not expecting much. Catrakilis should be receiving great service from Nicolas Vergallo, an Argentine international scrumhalf signed from French powerhouses Toulouse - a welcome addition to the competition. A centre combination of tough-tackling Andries Strauss and hard running Waylon Murray (signed from the Lions) won't be the worst in the competition and could cause some damage if given front-foot ball. The centre combination has enough experience and creativity to release the experienced outside backs like Michael Killian (also from the Lions) and the recruit from the Blues Hadleigh Parkes - two players that know about crossing the whitewash in Super Rugby. Parkes has a big boot that can bail the team out of their territory as well. Watch out for young centre Siyanda Grey from Grey High School in Port Elizabeth, whose great on his feet and is good ball runner.

A lot will be required of the guy with the ball!



This Is the Season. . . That the Eastern Cape finally gets some Super Rugby!

Finally, the time has arrived! The Eastern Cape, a hot bed of rugby talent, can finally claim a Super Rugby team as their own. It is almost damning how little Super Rugby is played here, considering the strength of the school rugby in the region and the players such as Luke Watson, Bandise Maku, Michael Killian, Keegan Daniel, Siya Kolisi, Bjorn Basson, Dewald Potgieter and Lwazi Mvovo being products of the region. Looking at the bigger picture, the addition of the Kings not only offers chances to players (especially of colour) in the region the chance to play in the best provincial tournament in the world (well in theory anyway), but it also offers the chance for black rugby-mad supporters to watch games of the highest quality regularly when they could not before. Before, people in the Eastern Cape could hope for maybe one test match a year and would have to travel about 600kms to get to the closest city with Super Rugby matches (Bloemfontein). But now the people in the province, especially young aspiring rugby players, can watch the best of the best on a weekly basis and be encouraged to emulate their heroes and become the heroes of tomorrow. Now isn't THAT what transformation is about? 

Prediction: 15th (5th in the South African Conference)
Unfortunately, opposition teams will be less charitable on the field and the step up from effectively 1st division rugby to Super Rugby will be a massive one. If the players with Super Rugby experience can stay fit throughout the season, the Kings have a chance at finishing fourth and avoiding the promotion/relegation match against their friends, the Lions. Unfortunately, this tournament has a notoriously high attrition rate and if the key players are injured, you are left with the squad that got beaten 69-20 over two matches last year in the Currie Cup promotion/relegation match by the Cheetahs. If the Kings could get a win against the Force first up, then maybe they could drag themselves out of the bottom. But, as history suggests, new teams usually finish bottom of the log after their first seasons - just ask the Force and the Rebels. At least these 16 matches will be great preparation for the 2 vital matches against the Lions.

Squad: Kevin Buys, Jaco Engels, Schalk Ferreira, Ross Geldenhuys, Lizo Gqoboka, Hannes Franklin, Virgile Lacombe, Bandise Maku, Edgar Marutlulle, Daniel Adongo, Rynier Bernardo, David Bulbring, Darron Nell, Steven Sykes, Cornell du Preez, Jacques Engelbrecht, Tomas Leonardi, Mpho Mbiyozo, Devin Oosthuizen, Wimpie van der Walt, Luke Watson, Johan Herbst, Scott Mathie, Shaun Venter, Nicolas Vergallo, Demetri Catrakilis, Wesley Dunlop, George Whitehead, Ronnie Cooke, Siyanda Grey, Waylon Murray, Hadleigh Parkes, Wayne Stevens, Andries Strauss, Michael Killian, Sergeal Petersen, Marcello Sampson, SP Marais, Siviwe Soyizwapi, Elric van Vuuren.

Teams that they don't Play: Blues and Reds

SHARKS

In the end, the Sharks season nose-dived like Coetzee

Last Year: Typical Sharks season: Start with high expectations, then play poorly, leave themselves with must-win games, play the best rugby of the season under immense pressure, win matches against all odds, but fall at the final hurdle in the final. The Sharks were already under pressure after losing against the Bulls and Stormers away first up. They found themselves having only won 4 out of their first 9 games, having to win the majority of games to sneak into the playoffs. Won 4 on the trot, including beating the top-of-the-table Stormers in Durban, but then lost inexplicably to the Lions. Then returned  to win the last 2 matches, including beating the Bulls to make it as the last-placed team in the playoffs by a whisker. Then, the unimaginable happened. The Sharks travel to Brisbane, home of the Australian Conference winners, the Reds, for their playoff match and beat them convincingly. They then had to travel back to South Africa to face the league-phase winners, the Stormers, in Cape Town for the semi-final - and they won to inflict the Stormers first loss at home of the season. The final though was in Hamilton New Zealand against the Chiefs, which was one bridge too far for the Sharks, who lost the final and somehow ended up as the runner-up.

Key Players: Not many players in the world had a better season than JP Pietersen, now the best wing in the world (arguably). The Sharks game plan of always looking for the offload suits Pietersen, who can pop up on the flyhalf or centre's shoulder, and has the strength and speed to exploit any sort of space on the field. With John Plumtree stating his intention to play Pat Lambie at flyhalf permanently now, it is now up to the new 'Jockey' ambassador to prove to sceptics (like me) that he can become the real deal at 10. A great buy from the Sharks was the acquisition of Butch James from the Lions, who knows he will play second fiddle to Lambie and the sort of experienced team man any squad needs. The Sharks have a lot of variety in the centres this year, with Francois Steyn playing in his first full Super Rugby tournament since coming back from Racing Metro, the ever-improving Tim Whitehead, a tidy distributor and somebody that can take the gap, the young and exciting Paul Jordaan who has the pace to run around most other outside centres and the not-so-brilliant but reliable Meyer Bosman, a physical customer with a good boot on him to help the flyhalf. Speaking of boots, Steyn's bazooka boot will be valuable to the Sharks this season to help Lambie clear his lines and to gain territory. Steyn's physicality and tendency to offload is one that Jordaan, Whitehead, Pietersen, Lwazi Mvovo or Odwa Ndungane will be looking to benefit from. Mvovo had a very good year last year with his wing work and work rate improving game-by-game and he remains one of the best finishers in the competition. Ndungane will be a valuable and experienced squad member, allowing the other wings to be rotated. Watch out for the lanky but speedy Wandile Mjekevu and quick-footed Sibusiso Sithole, who are two youngsters who will be also waiting for opportunities on the wing. Louis Ludick had a brilliant Currie Cup campaign last season and will be looking to prove that he can make an impact at this level, while Riaan Viljoen will be looking to improve from a decent first season at the Shark Tank. The young, but supremely talented Cobus Reinach seems to have gotten ahead of Charl McLeod and Conrad Hoffmann in the scrumhalf queue, but all three are good enough to do the job and give service to this dangerous backline!

One only has to look at the depth at loose forward to answer why the Sharks are one of the favourites for the trophy this season, as coach John Plumtree has the luxury of picking 3 from the young, but committed Marcell Coetzee, the dynamic ball carriers like captain Keegan Daniel and Ryan Kankowski (who grew in leaps and bounds last season), the big bruisers like Willem Alberts and Jean Deysel, a hardworking fetcher like Jacques Botes and a youngster showing lots of potential in Lubabalo Mthembu. I don't envy the decision you have to make there, Plum! There won't be many better front rows than the Springbok-laden front row of Tendai Mtawarira, the battleship Bismarck du Plessis and the scrum doctor Jannie du Plessis. The dynamic ball carrier, Craig Burden, will be a big impact player for the Sharks this season as well. The Sharks have added some much-needed depth to their lock stock by buying the experienced and hard working Franco van der Merwe from the Lions, who will pair up well with the improving Anton Bresler at lock, with IRB Junior World Cup winner from last year, Pieter-Steph du Toit adding some physicality and mobility to the lock ranks. The Sharks are usually the best in SA when it comes to squad rotation, and they have the squad this year that allows them to rest key players

This Is the Season. . . That Pat Lambie experiences the 'Butch Effect'
In a previous blog, I stated my reservations about Pat Lambie being a flyhalf in the long term, reasoning that his tendency to run with the ball rather than pass it could hamper him from being a world-class flyhalf. But, with the Sharks bringing Butch James into the squad, there is nobody better than him left in South Africa to improve Lambie's distribution game. James is a vastly experienced flyhalf who has seen it all before and will impart some wisdom to Lambie about flyhalf play in general, but it is his fantastic distribution game that Lambie could learn from. James is one of those flyhalves that plays flat, close to the line, draws defenders to him and will pass to a player in space or kick the ball forward for a team mate to collect. He is one of those flyhalves whose kit will remain clean during the game, as he only runs with the ball and takes contact when he has no other choice (of course his kit does not really remain clean because of his commitment in defence, but you know what I mean). While Pat can do all of this and more, he has to learn that sometimes it is better to put others into gaps, rather than be the one taking the gap. Now I am not saying he is selfish, he does usually create chances for others, but not enough for me. Butch James could be the person that teaches Lambie to be the distributor at flyhalf and make his linebreaking runs so rare and special, that they will become even more effective. Could Butch James be Pat Lambie's missing link to greatness?

You won't be the only ones "supporting" Pat

Drowning the Sharks: Quite simply, the Sharks have literally everything you could ask from a club team to win any game, in any conditions, against any team, with any sort of game plan. The Sharks weakness mostly is themselves and how they can be their own worst enemies. To beat the Sharks, the opposition forwards will have to have a massive game and control the set pieces, rucks and mauls. While most teams can only hope for parity against the Sharks scrum, teams could definitely target the Sharks lineout, which looks like their major weakness, with van der Merwe and Bresler not being the best of lineout jumpers. The opposition will have to ruck and defend aggressively and ensure that the Sharks do not cross the advantage line often enough. If the opposition can stop big ball carriers like Bismarck, Alberts, Deysel and Kankowski from making meters, the Sharks are there to be beaten.

Prediction: Semifinalists - 4th Overall (2nd in South African Conference)
The Sharks have one of the best squads in the tournament, and have the potential to win the whole thing, but I predict that the Stormers will pip them to the post and win the SA Conference. There are not many question marks around this squad except for the locks and what would happen if Franco van der Merwe got injured - would the likes of Alberts and Deysel fill in (which for me, takes something away from their set pieces)? Added to that is the Sharks tendency to make life difficult for themselves, could a calming influence at flyhalf like Pat Lambie be the one that gives the Sharks enough consistency to top the overall pool? The Sharks will be hard to beat at home in knockout games, but they only have to look at the 2007 Super 14 final against the Bulls and last year's Currie Cup final against Western Province to see that winning a home knockout game is not a sure thing. But my prediction is that the Sharks will fall short in the semi finals after qualifying in 4th place.

Squad: Louis Ludik, Gouws Prinsloo, Riaan Viljoen, Lwazi Mvovo, Odwa Ndungane, JP Pietersen, Sibusiso Sithole, Meyer Bosman, Paul Jordaan, Wandile Mjekevu, Frans Steyn, Tim Whitehead, Heimar Williams, Patrick Lambie, Butch James, Cobus Reinach, Charl McLeod, Conrad Hoffmann, Dale Chadwick, Jannie du Plessis, Wiehahn Herbst, Tendai Mtawarira, Julian Redelinghuys, Craig Burden, Kyle Cooper, Monde Hadebe, Bismarck du Plessis, Anton Bresler, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jaundre Marais, Peet Marais, Franco van der Merwe, Willem Alberts, Jacques Botes, Marcell Coetzee, Keegan Daniel (captain), Jean Deysel, Ryan Kankowski, Francois Kleinhans, Lubabalo Mtembu.

Teams that they don't Play: Hurricanes and Waratahs

STORMERS

"Damnit! Wrong trophy again!"

Last Year: A team that loses only 3 matches in the whole competition must have come home with the Super Rugby trophy at the end of the season, right? Not if you are the Stormers. With only two losses in the regular season against the Crusaders and the Sharks away, the Stormers finished top of the overall log - without even getting one four-try bonus point. Not even one! Having finished top of the log, the Stormers won the right to play the lowest ranked team from the playoff stage - the Sharks. But the Sharks proved to be the Stormers downfall again, defeating the Stormers in Cape Town in the semi final. For three seasons in a row, the Stormers have lost in the knockout stages of the tournament, and for two of those seasons they have lost knockout games in Newlands.

Key Players: The Stormers have had the stingiest defence in the competition for the last two seasons, and it is usually the loose forwards that set the tone for the team. The human pick-up truck, Siya Kolisi had a breakthrough season last season, as he was the wall that no attacker could go through, and left a lot of defenders in his wake when he carried the ball. He is almost Jerome Kaino-esque the way he plays. Duane Vermeulen finally ascended to being the first choice Springbok 8th man and will look to continue that form. But the big news is the Return of the Schalk! You won't like him when he's angry! Schalk Burger will be looking to make up for lost time, making telling hits in defence, being a reliable ball carrier and lineout option and being this team's fearless captain. Not many breakthrough seasons can beat Eben Etzebeth. Look below this paragraph as to why. His lock partner, Andries Bekker, is becoming as much of a nuisance in the lineouts as his predecessor in the Springboks, Victor Matfield, and has the ball skills that would make NBA players impressed. At lock or at flank, Rynhardt Elstadt (if not in the sin-bin) and Michael Rhodes will play key roles filling in for players that are injured or resting. Both are great lineout options, solid tacklers and cause damage in rucks. Currie Cup winning captain of last year Deon Fourie will be the player thrown on if the Stormers need to up the tempo, as he can play as a hooker or a decent openside flanker. Scarra Ntubeni had a stellar Currie Cup campaign and him and Fourie will be pushing incumbent Tiaan Liebenberg for a starting place. The two youngsters at prop, Frans Malherbe and the fiery Steven Kitshoff will only get better with experience and age, and with the guidance and experience of the recruit from the Lions, Pat Cilliers, to help.

Etzebeth's 2012 in a nutshell, don't look Bissie!

Will we seen Juan de Jongh's dance moves under the Newlands posts this season? We certainly hope so! If it was ever in doubt, de Jongh's try in last year's Currie Cup final showed why he must get much more of the ball, as the angles he runs can cut through any defence (are you listening, Heyneke?). Maybe Elton Jantjies at flyhalf will be able to get the ball to de Jongh more, if he can keep the 10 shirt once Peter Grant comes back from Japan. With Grant's goal kicking touching 90% last season and his solid defence in the flyhalf channel, it will be interesting to see how coach Allister Coetzee utilises both players. Another big battle for the shirt will be between another loaned Lion Jaco Taute and established star Joe Pietersen. Taute has the running game, the defence and the big boot to influence any game, and he will be hoping to show enough form to win a Springbok 15 jersey. Pietersen might well be seeing himself on the wings with either one of  Gerhard van den Heever, Bryan Habana and the man that can make a try out of nothing, Gio Aplon. Habana is well and truly back from his mid-career wobble and the reigning SA Player of the Year will be looking to bring the Super Rugby trophy to Cape Town before he leaves for Toulon at the end of the season. At the center of Western Province's attacking efforts in the Currie Cup last season was the sharp passing and quick sniping scrumhalf play of Nic Groom, who will hopefully play in more matches this season, as he shows great potential as a future Bok scrumhalf. But the experienced Dewaldt Duvenage and another livewire scrumhalf, Louis Schreuder want to be the Stormers number 1 number 9 as well. The experience Jean de Villiers is the glue that holds this whole thing together with his organisation of attack and defence, but hopefully chances will be given to exciting youngsters like Marcel Brache, Damian de Allende and JP du Plessis to give de Villiers a rest during the season.

This Is the Season. . . That a bunch of Lions bring Pride to the Cape
What do the Bulls side of 2010, the Reds side of 2011 and the Chiefs side of 2012 have in common? Those three teams could score a glutton of tries when needed to take the game away from the opposition. This is the one thing that the Stormers lack at the moment, shown by them not having one four-try bonus point last season. While the Stormers still won the league stages of the competition, when asked to score tries to win, they have failed. Encouraging signs were shown by the Western Province Currie Cup team, as they scored tries aplenty by playing with quicker ball and relying on the offload more. Added to that, the signings of Pat Cilliers, Elton Jantjies and Jaco Taute could be key to making the Stormers more attacking. Pat Cilliers is a seriously good tighthead prop, one that the Stormers have been lacking for a while (no, Brok Harris doesn't count!). With Etzebeth or Elstadt behind him, Cilliers could turn a long-time weakness, the scrum, into a strength this season - and something that the talented backline could attack from. Jantjies and Taute are two of the most exciting attacking players in SA, who can create chances from absolutely nothing. Jantjies could be the flyhalf that brings de Jongh, Habana and Aplon into the game more with his precise passing game when playing on the gain line. Taute is a fullback whose instinct is to counter-attack, which means he could combine with Aplon, Habana or even Joe Pietersen to tear unstructured defences to shreds. Kick to them at your own peril! Most importantly, these signings (including Michael Rhodes) add depth to a squad that has struggled with injury crises over the last two seasons. The loose forward crisis of last season (that required the services of a Canadian to fill in for the wounded) and the flyhalf crisis of 2011 are stark reminders of how harsh this tournament could be with injuries. But the addition of these Lions loanees might be that key factor that brings that elusive crown to Newlands.

Overcoming the Storm(ers): Well, there is still one area that the Stormers remain vulnerable: If you get ahead of them on the scoreboard, the Stormers just cannot come back from a deficit. Once the Stormers are ahead, that Great Wall of Cape Town of a defence will close any game out - the Stormers defence in the last two seasons has been impregnable. The Stormers lost the three matches where the opposition was ahead of them after 60 minutes, with the Stormers attack just lacking any ideas and creativity to break down the defence and score tries when needed. But the Stormers are looking to rectify that by signing Jantjies and Taute. Now, how to get ahead of them? A strong tactical kicking game is needed where you make Habana, especially, kick from hand and a good kick-chase game to force young Taute into making a mistake under pressure. You want Duvenage and Grant (if on the field) making kicks from inside their 22, because their tactical kicking is not the best and their kicks do not get enough distance. The Stormers tactical kicking game is one of the weaker ones when it comes to the top teams and good opposition teams can win the kicking battle. Once in the Stormers half, make sure that you take points away from every visit through drop goals and penalties, in order to get ahead of the Stormers and force them under pressure to attack. The Stormers set pieces are solid, but not the best in the world and a good team can use that as their platform for attack.  

Prediction: Finalists - 2nd Overall (1st in South African Conference)
If my prediction is true, I do sympathise with the Newlands faithful for going through now 4 seasons of heartbreak. But it doesn't have to be like that! The Stormers will be hard to beat, especially with the additions made to the squad. A potential problem is deciding whether to play with the freedom of the Province Currie Cup team, or be more conservative like the table-topping Stormers of last year. If the coaching staff can marry these two styles, then the Stormers could go all the way. Psychologically, the game against the Crusaders at Newlands on March 30th could be huge! The Stormers could exorcise the demons of the past by proving that they can beat the Saders (at home at least) and stop the 3 match losing streak they have against the men from Christchurch. But if the tournament goes as I predicted, it will be the Crusaders in Christchurch that will beat the Stormers in the final, meaning that the wait for the Super Rugby trophy continues. But, it does not have to be like that!

Squad: Deon Carstens, Pat Cilliers, Brok Harris, Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Martin Bezuidenhout, Deon Fourie, Tiaan Liebenberg, Siyabonga Ntubeni, Andries Bekker, Ruan Botha, Rynhardt Elstadt, Eben Etzebeth, De Kock Steenkamp, Don Armand, Schalk Burger, Nizaam Carr, Siya Kolisi, Sikumbuzo Notshe, Michael Rhodes, Duane Vermeulen, Dewaldt Duvenage, Nic Groom, Louis Schreuder, Kurt Coleman, Peter Grant, Elton Jantjies, Tim Swiel, Gary van Aswegen, Marcel Brache, Juan de Jongh, Jean de Villiers, JP du Plessis, Patrick Howard, Berton Klaasen, Gio Aplon, Ederies Arendse, Damian de Allende, Bryan Habana, Gerhard van den Heever, Joe Pietersen, Jaco Taute.

Teams that they don't Play: Highlanders and Force

Super Rugby 2013 Preview: New Zealand Conference

My second preview of the 2013 Super Rugby season looks at the New Zealand Conference and the teams competing in it.

Ignore Clarkie there please

Welcome to "New Sullund", land of beautiful beaches, a glorious mountain and beautiful people. Or is that Cape Town? Same thing, isn't it... Well anyhoo, nothing to joke about with this Conference, with 4 of the 5 teams having realistic playoff ambitions for the season, and the 5th team being the 3-time champions, the Blues, showing how ridiculously strong the New Zealand Conference is this year. But could the strength of the Conference actually act as a hindrance to New Zealand teams? Could some New Zealand franchises fall short of the top 6 due to results against other Kiwi teams, and the fact that you have to play each New Zealand team twice? Could New Zealand teams effectively knock each other out? Well the South African supporting part of Cape Town, and the rest of the country hope so!

The defending champions, the Chiefs, only have to look at how the Reds performed last season after being champions in 2011 as a warning for how tough it can get to retain the title. The Highlanders have recruited brilliantly and will be looking to be the third new champion for the third consecutive season. The Hurricanes performed far above the public's expectations last season, but now the opposition will be much more weary of their threat. The Blues had a horrible 2012, but with Auckland legend, John Kirwan, at the helm and a young squad, the process of rebuilding begins. The Crusaders have now gone 4 seasons without winning the title, which is an eon in Christchurch. Could this be their time to deliver?

After the stellar 2012 enjoyed by New Zealand rugby, with no World Cup hangover showing, the Conference will try to certify the rude health New Zealand rugby is in.

BLUES

There won't be any chance to hide for the Blues this season

Last Year:It doesn't get any worse for a team as big and as successful as the Blues. Bottom of the New Zealand Conference, only 4 wins from 16, a senior player like Piri Weepu having a much-publicised issue with his weight, a coach (Pat Lam) having a very public breakdown and also losing his job at the end of the season and key senior players like Ma'a Nonu, Tony Woodcock and Alby Mathewson leaving the team. Even though most predicted playoff rugby for the Blues last year, they just baffled pundits with lacklustre displays and mediocre performances from senior players. Apart from some impressive wins against the Bulls and the Brumbies away, there is not much to shout about in Auckland. With a new head coach in Auckland legend  John Kirwan, and a certain Sir Graham Henry in the team's coaching setup once again, surely things could only get better this season.

Key Players: So often the go-to guy for franchise and country alike, Keven Mealamu will have to take up  more responsibility as the captain of a young squad. There are not many better ball carrying, ruck hitting and scrummaging hookers in world rugby, but his dodgy lineout throwing will have to improve in order to make All Black locks Ali Williams and Anthony Boric's lives easier. Both Williamms and Boric have flattered to deceive throughout their careers with both having injury striking them at inopportune moments just when they are hitting top form. Prop Charlie Faumuina will be looking to continue the form that put him in the All Blacks squad last season and will be hoping Tom McCartney can make the step up from bench player to regular starter. A lot of responsibility will rest on the young shoulders of Luke Braid from the 8th man position, who will be relied upon to set the tone for the team by carrying the ball in attack and stealing ball from rucks in defence. Watch out for youngsters such as former Crusaders hooker Quentin MacDonald, impressive loose forward Peter Saili and a bruising lock, Liaki Moli to also make an impact for the team when called upon.

The name Charles Piutau should be familiar to you by the end of the season, if it isn't already. A young fullback with the pace and swerve to get through any defence and a great counter attacker, he was scoring wonderful tries in the ITM Cup last season for Auckland and will be looking to build on the debut he made last season. It is time for Rene Ranger to grow from a player made for youtube videos to one that the team can rely on to make those game-changing runs or tackles, the Blues backline needs him this season. A fitter Piri Weepu will have a job on his hands motivating the forwards to get forward and helping the less experienced flyhalf Chris Noakes run the show. Weepu will have to take up  more responsibility with tactical and goal kicking and also be the one creating chances for the outside backs. Jackson Willison, signed from the Chiefs, will add some workmanlike stability to the Chiefs midfield.

This Is the Season. . . The Blues could emulate the Hurricanes
The Blues don't have to look far back for encouragement and inspiration for this season. After a horror 2011 that climaxed with the exodus of many an experienced star player, coach Mark Hammet had to rebuild the Hurricanes squad from the debris. Not a lot was expected of the squad that did not have all its stars to call upon, but Hammet was finally allowed to do stuff his way and fostered such a positive team environment, coupled with an enjoyable and attacking gameplan that players were happy with and believed in. It required senior players like Conrad Smith to take responsibility and youngsters like Julian Savea to step up and deliver on their talent. The Blues of 2013 are in a similar boat to the 'Canes of 2012. While John Kirwan can only dream of almost making the playoffs like the Hurricanes, he can take solace from the fact that if the team environment is positive, the gameplan enjoyable, senior players such as Weepu, Ranger, Braid, Williams and Mealamu step up and take more responsibility to allow the youngsters like Piutau, Saili and flanker Steven Luatua to play their natural game, then the Blues could also surprise many this season.

Giving the Blues the blues: The Blues strength is with the outside backs, with the likes of Piutau and Ranger ready to tear up any defence if given space and time. The secret is to slow the game down and make it a tactical battle, because you will give this Blues team a chance if the game is more open and broken. The opposition should play with structure by kicking the ball behind the back 3, to make them run back to get the ball and force them to do something they not comfortable with - kicking. The tactical kicking game can ensure you win the territorial battle. Take on the Blues at scrum time, putting pressure on McCartney, and mess up the ball they get from rucks and mauls so that the backs don't get the ball on the front foot. Limit the influence of Braid at ruck time by forcing him to make tackles. Play clever, pressure-building rugby where the Blues feel like prisoners in their territory and hit their runners back in attack by employing a rush defence to not give their ball carriers space. Whatever you do, don't kick the ball down Ranger or Piutau's throats!

Prediction: 13th (5th in New Zealand Conference)

Make no mistake, Kirwan and Henry are here for the long haul to fix Blues rugby and return it to its former glory, so for now expectations should be moderated. Anything other than 5th in the conference will be an achievement, but frankly too much has to go the Blues way for them to finish higher than predicted. The Blues could give a few teams a hiding if they come to Auckland not bringing their top game and will catch a few hidings themselves, as the squad lacks the experience to consistently win matches, but this is all part of a long term project. Maybe in a few years time, these young Blues players will look back at 2013 as the turning point in the franchise's history.

Squad: Frank Halai, Waisake Naholo, Charles Piutau, Rene Ranger, Marty McKenzie, Malakai Fekitoa, George Moala, Francis Saili, Jackson Willison, Baden Kerr, Chris Noakes, Bryn Hall, Piri Weepu, Jamison Gibson-Park, Kane Barrett, Luke Braid, Steven Luatua, Brendon O'Connor, Ronald Raaymakers, Peter Saili, Anthony Boric, Liaki Moli, Culum Retallick, Ali Williams, Charlie Faumuina, Tom McCartney, Tim Perry, Angus Ta'avao, Ofa Tu'ungafasi, Keven Mealamu, Quentin MacDonald, James Parsons.

Teams that they don't Play: Force and Kings

CHIEFS

Last Year: Not many people outside of Waikato expected the Chiefs to win the championship, but the Chiefs were the ones lifting the trophy at the end of last season. Efficient, effective and entertaining they were, the Chiefs only lost 4 games the whole season, which put them in 2nd place in the overall log and top of the New Zealand Conference. Impressive and vital wins against the Crusaders in Christchurch in round 3 and the Sharks in Durban in round 9 stand out in their league campaign. The Chiefs faced the Crusaders in Hamilton for the semi final, and( in a little bit of a surprise) managed to beat them. Luckily for the Chiefs, the Sharks beat the Stormers in Cape Town, meaning that the final would be in Hamilton against the Sharks, instead of back in South Africa against the Stormers. In their best performance of the season, the Chiefs slayed the travel weary Sharks 37-6 in the most one-sided final since the Chiefs themselves conceded 61 points against the Bulls. Check this video of the haka they performed after winning the final, and watch out for Hika Elliot and that axe!

Key Players: With a certain SBW gone to play rugby league and box White Buffalos, it is the form and fitness of Richard Kahui that could determine the Chiefs' destiny this season.  Aaron Cruden is another vital cog, as the rapidly maturing flyhalf - and top points scorer last season - will be the one ensuring the Chiefs play in the right areas, and ensuring continuity in their attacking game with his offloads from the tackle. Cruden will have his successor in the Baby Blacks, Gareth Anscombe, as his understudy this season, showing the depth in the Chiefs ranks. Asaeli Tikoirotuma, Tim Nanai-Williams and Leila Masaga are the fleet-footed finishers who will hopefully be racking up the tries this season. Fullback Robbie Robinson's field kicking and ability to counter attack made opposition teams think twice about kicking to him last season, and the solid utility-man Andrew Horrell will also look to contribute when called upon. The likes of August Pulu and centre Bundee Aki will be looking to impress at this level too. Tawera Kerr-Barlow's quick service and sniping runs from the base of the ruck helped ball carrying forwards receive the ball in space so that they could break the defensive line too.

Liam Messam enjoyed a coming-of-age season, as he proved that he can also be a world class loose forward and a leader as well. Messam is not scared to take the ball up himself, to make the aggressive tackles on the big ball carriers, hit the rucks and show his teammates what the standard of play should be. Tanerau Latimer is a highly underrated openside flanker who works his socks off every game winning balls from opposition rucks and putting his body on the line for the team. After last year, Sam Cane is being talked about as being Sir Richie's heir apparent in the black 7 jersey. He will be looking for a solid, committed campaign for the Chiefs, as they might try a twin-openside flanker system. Ross Filipo and Nick Crosswell add depth and size to the loose forward ranks. Brodie Retallick shows an eagerness to work not found in many rugby players of his age. His numbers for rucks hit reach the 60 mark in some games, and is also the first option to take the lineout ball. Captain Craig Clarke is the calm, old head among the young and aggressive Chiefs pack. Mahonri Schwalger and Hika Elliot will continue to fight for the hooker spot and continue being the high-impact players they are. Sadly for all, the try-scoring prop, Sona Taumalolo has gone to France. But in Ben Tameifuna and Ben Afeaki, the Chiefs have two relatively young and capable tighthead props. The problem is that Toby Smith will have to take up a more prominent role in the team this season, which means that the Chiefs scrum could be a weakness.

This Is the Season. . . Richard Kahui has to step up!
Richard Kahui has always threatened to break into that upper echelon of centres that has the likes of Conrad Smith, but injuries have always happened just when he looks to be reaching the top of his game. Richard Kahui's pace, power and aggression is undisputed, but the Chiefs will be asking him to take a bigger leadership and organisational role in the midfield. With Sonny-Bill Williams gone, Kahui will have to take a leading role in taking the ball up in the midfield and also bringing players around him into the game just like SBW did last season. The performance and fitness of Kahui is so important that I believe it is the difference between playoff rugby and no playoff rugby. Kahui will have to ensure he plays the majority of games and coach Dave Rennie will have to manage him well. Young Bundee Aki will be looking at him to be the driving force in the midfield, and to be the player that always wants the ball by him. With no Mulialina or SBW to outrank or outshine him, this is Kahui's backline and it could also be Kahui's season.

Dethroning the Chiefs: The Chiefs tight five remain a little raw and lacking an experienced star to make them a really good tight five. This area is definitely a weakness in the Chiefs game which could be exposed in the set pieces by more experienced tight forwards. The two Big Bens and Toby Smith could be made to buckle at scrum time and both Elliot's and Schwalger's throwing in lineouts is not very accurate and these two could be put under pressure. Runners like Liam Messam must not cross the advantage line often, or this will give the Chiefs backline the momentum to unleash their star power. Aggressive defending on the fringes and counter rucking is needed to give Kerr-Barlow less space and force him under pressure, which will make Cruden make mistakes too. Not too many chinks in this team's armour.

How much will Hamilton miss SBW? 

Prediction: Playoffs - 5th Overall (2nd in New Zealand Conference)

The 'SBW Factor' will be discussed a lot during the season, and if the man was in this squad, there would not be too many reasons why the Chiefs couldn't win again this season. But he is gone and he will be missed, how much he is missed will depend on how Richard Kahui performs. The Chiefs, Crusaders and Highlanders will be stuck in a battle for the Conference, and the Chiefs could realistically see themselves in 1st or even as low as 3rd place. The strength of the Conference could see the Chiefs losing more games than the Sharks for example, which is why I believe 5th will be their position and an overseas playoff game will be too much to ask from this team. If Kahui, Messam and Cruden stay fit, a double is there for the taking, but as the Reds showed last season, being the team on top makes others even more determined to knock you down!

Squad: Tim Nanai-Williams, Andrew Horrell, Robbie Robinson, Lelia Masaga, Patrick Osborne, Asaeli Tikoirotuma , Bundee Aki, Richard Kahui, Charlie Ngatai, Gareth Anscombe, Aaron Cruden, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Brendon Leonard, August Pulu, Fritz Lee, Sam Cane, Nick Crosswell, Ross Filipo, Tanerau Latimer, Liam Messam, Craig Clarke,  Mike Fitzgerald, Romana Graham, Brodie Retallick, Ben Afeaki, Josh Hohneck, Toby Smith, Solomona Sakalia, Ben Tameifuna, Hika Elliot, Rhys Marshall, Mahonri Schwalger.

Teams that they don't Play: Brumbies and Bulls

CRUSADERS

For the Crusaders high standards, 2012 just wasn't good enough

Last Year: An uncharacteristically sloppy season (in Crusader standards) last season, where the 'Saders lost games they could've (and should've) won against the Chiefs, Highlanders, Bulls, Rebels and the Hurricanes. The team sometimes looked like the best side in the competition (wins against the Blues in Christchurch and the Chiefs in Hamilton were examples of this), but sometimes they looked like a cheap imitation of the efficiency showed by teams of the past. Winning the Overall log, never mind the Conference, could have been obtained by this team, but inconsistency and inefficient performances let them down in key matches. How un-Crusader-like were those last few words! Having qualified for the playoffs, they beat the Bulls in Christchurch, but fell to the Chiefs in Hamilton in the semi finals.

Key Players: Now that it is 5 years since their last championship, it is time for these players to get serious about reclaiming this title (just imagine Arsenal not winning a trophy for 5 years... WAIT!). Kieran Read is captain this season with Sir Richie McCaw(esomeness) taking a sabattical away from rugby. Read is very close to the level of McCaw and Dan Carter in terms of being a world class player that is far and away the best in his position and due to his value to the Crusaders and the All Blacks, and will be looking to lead the charge with his physicality, athleticism, superb skill and ability to rise to the big occassion. Matt Todd can count himself unlucky that Sam Cane has been made next in line to Richie, but some stellar performances while the master is gone could change Steve Hansen's mind. Luke Romano grew in influence as the season went on, with his huge hits and bollocking runs around the fringes becoming a regular feature. Him and Sam Whitelock ensure that the Crusaders lineout remains strong, with the experienced Tom Donnelly offering an option at lock as well. Corey Flynn will be looking for his locks in the lineout and making a nuisance of himself to opposition ball carriers and rucks. Brother Ben might be gone, but luckily for 'Saders fans, the grizzly Owen Franks is still around and is one of the most feared tightheads to scrum with. Loosehead Wyatt Crockett will be looking to concede less penalties from scrums and continue his rise as one of the top props in the competition.

Dan Carter will have to take up more of the leadership responsibilities with McCaw out until July (hopefully).  If he is on the field, the Crusaders know they can beat any team. Watching Israel Dagg play and then looking at his stats show just how good he is, because he remains one of the most exciting players in the game while making very few errors in attack and defence. When he joins the attacking line, fans go to the edge of their seats, anticipating something special. What more must Robbie Fruean do to become an All Black? If he performs more consistently, influences games when he doesn't get as much ball and improve his decision making in defence, then surely he cannot be ignored anymore? On Fruean's inside will be either the more physical Ryan Crotty or the 2nd flyhalf option of Tom Taylor, depending on the gameplan for the day. Taylor showed last season that he could fill in for Carter when he was injured at the beginning, as he and Tyler Bleyendaal did not disappoint. With Sean Maitland getting in touch with his Scottish roots and Zac Guildford looking like he won't play for a while due to discipline problems, no better time for youngsters like Tom Marshall and Johnny Mcnicholl to prove their worth on the wing. The reliable Andy Ellis gets better with age, as his decision making and tactical awareness gives the team an added advantage. Youngsters like Willie Heinz and Jeremy Su'a will offer back up at scrum half.

This Is the Season. . . of the Whitelocks
Could the Whitelocks be the key factor (get it?) in leading the Crusaders to Super Rugby glory? While the four brothers aren't yet in the class of Carter, McCaw and Dagg, they are the hard working squad players that any title challenger needs. Sam Whitelock's game has been growing at lock, taking responsibility for calling the lineouts, winning his own lineout ball and stealing opposition ball - a vital presence in the lineouts for this side. George Whitelock does all the dirty work at blindside flank. While not being the game breaker a Kieran Read is, his contribution in the rucks and mauls, securing Crusaders ball and his high tackles made rate are vital to the success of the team. Youngest brother Luke Whitelock will get minimal opportunities at 8th man with Read playing, but will be on the bench most games,ready to make an impact with his ball carrying ability. And, with a bit of a crisis on the wing, Adam Whitelock's role in the team will increase in importance, as he becomes the senior wing in the squad. Also able to fill in at centre, Whitelock's utility is his greatest asset to the team. A family destined for greatness?

A Band of Brothers

Halting the Crusaders: The best compliment that can be given to this Crusaders team is that opposition teams will have to play their best game of the season to beat this team. If all are fit, there are few areas that a team can try to target. The main problem the Crusaders have is that they do not have as much depth as possible, and many injuries at the same time could leave them highly vulnerable in terms of ability and experience. The likes of Franks, Read, Ellis, Carter, Freuan and Dagg cannot all be injured at the same time. To beat the 'Saders, you will have to put the team out of their comfort zone. The Chiefs showed the world how to do it by employing an aggressive 'blitzkrieg' defence that knocks back any Crusader ball carriers, and closes down space and options to Dan Carter.  Clever running lines from the centres can also expose Freuan's naivety in defence. Easier said than done though, and if you do not dominate the Crusaders in the contact area, like Liam Neeson they will find you and they will kill you!

Prediction: Champions - 1st Overall (1st in New Zealand Conference)
The one year where they have less depth, McCaw not playing until June and with more contenders than usual, and I pick the Crusaders to win the whole thing this year. Why? Well they still have the one of the best squad of 26 players in the competition; they have world class stars and All Blacks in almost all positions; they have committed squad players that cause no drama and upset the team spirit; the franchise knows how to get to the playoffs, having done it every year for the last 11 years; they don't often lose in Christchurch and if they have any knockout games there, home ground for the Crusaders will be a huge advantage; finally with Canterbury winning the ITM Cup for the last 5 years and the Crusaders winning nothing in this period, the players and coaches will be determined to bring that Super Rugby trophy back to Christchurch. The Crusaders have been stung twice by not winning the overall log and should be determined to finish top of the log to ensure the home ground advantage for the knockout games. Then, the opposition teams must watch out!

Squad: Tyler Bleyendaal, Dan Carter, Ryan Crotty, Israel Dagg, Andy Ellis, Robbie Fruean, Zac Guildford, Willi Heinz, Tom Marshall, Johnny Mcnicholl, Jeremy Su'a, Tom Taylor, Adam Whitelock, Dominic Bird, Shane Christie, Wyatt Crockett, Tom Donnelly, Corey Flynn, Owen Franks, Ben Funnell, Nepo Laulala, Richie McCaw, Joe Moody, Kieran Read, Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Codie Taylor, Matt Todd, Jimmy Tupou, George Whitelock, Luke Whitelock, Sam Whitelock.

Teams that they don't Play: Reds and Cheetahs

HIGHLANDERS

Will there be more of this in 2013?

Last Year: I almost want to say "Read 2011's Season Review", as 2012 occurred in almost identical fashion. Starting off the competition with a 4-match winning streak and with 7 wins in 9 matches, the Highlanders looked like Conference contenders at the season's halfway point. But when injuries hit the squad in the 2nd half of the season, it was a familiar tale of woe as the Highlanders only managed 2 wins from the remaining 7 matches and finishing a lowly 9th. While the Highlanders had one of the best fully fit match XVs, their squad lacked the depth to go into the playoffs, and this is something that coach Jamie Joseph is attempting to address.

Key Players: And a welcome back to Super Rugby to Brad Thorn, a man that has won every competition he has played in, in rugby union and rugby league. No matter what he contributes on the field, his off field contribution and experience in being in winning teams and nurturing Josh Bekhuis and Jarrad Hoeata could be even more valuable. Hoeata will play more at blindside flank with the signing of Thorn and the departure of the great Super Rugby loose forward, Adam Thompson. But can he make the contribution that Thompson made with his ball carrying, offloading, creating chances for teammates, defence, rucking and stealing ball? I am not sure if Hoeata and John Hardie together can match the contribution made by Thompson alone to this team. Nasi Manu had a very good season in 2012 and was great with ball in hand. He will grow as a player in this campaign, making more of an impact without the ball too. Not many better names in rugby and not many better hookers in world rugby than Andrew Hore. Great scrummager, great lineout thrower, steals opposition ruck ball, good with ball in hand and a natural leader too. From the Blues comes Tony Woodcock, with the twilight fast approaching in his career. Not as good as he was in 2009-2011, but adds experience and ability (especially) to the prop ranks that have seasoned campaigners like Jamie Mackintosh and Chris King.

It's almost crazy to think about that Ma'a Nonu still has not won a Super Rugby title yet! Nonu has been signed from the sinking ship in Auckland and adds so much skill and All Black experience to the backline. The combination with the quick footed, great angle-running Tamati Ellison could be one of the best in the competition (best in the conference, certainly), as they contrast so well together and could be able to bring the best out of each other. Phil Burleigh offers very good backup for the centres too. All Black Ben Smith will (hopefully) stick to playing in fullback this season, as his kicking boot, ability to run from deep and link up with others are valuable skills that a fullback should have. All Black and namesake Aaron Smith's quick, accurate passing and growing running game from the rucks will give flyhalf Colin Slade mor time and space to pick his options. Hopefully Slade tries to put away the wings like man monster Hosea Gear and speedsters Kade Poki and Buxton Popoalii, so that they can find the try line.

This Is the Season. . . For the Return of Colin Slade
Two years ago, this was the man trusted to become Dan Carter's All Black understudy if anything happened to him at the 2011 Rugby World Cup. Injured was Carter in the RWC, and in came Slade. But in the games played, Slade unfortunately never showed enough to justify the claim that he was the best frlyhalf that could step into Carter's magic boots. Unfortunately Slade got injured as well, and some Beaver won the World Cup and boy wonders, Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett and Tom Taylor have surpassed him in the future All Black flyhalf hierarchy. Now that Slade is fully fit again, with an All Black scrumhalf in Aaron Smith, an experienced centre on his outside like Ma'a Nonu, many more dangerous backs outside Nonu and a forward pack that will win him front foot ball, Colin Slade will look to get back to his best soon. The hardships of 2011 and 2012 will make him mentally tougher, which could be a deciding factor in the Highlanders search for knockout rugby.

A key man to the Highlanders' playoff chances

Conquering the Highlanders: Trying to take on Gear, Smith, Poki, Ellison and Nonu in a fast, open gameplan is not the smartest of ideas and should be avoided. Is a slow, physical, structured, pick-up-and-drive dogfight the right approach? The problem is nobody will enjoy that slow, grinding type of match than Woodcock and Thorn. If both remain fit (despite their ages, ehem), the only weak point for the Highlanders would be their loose forwards. Can Jarrad Hoeata be a blindside flank on a more permanent basis? Is Josh Hardie a good enough fetcher for a team of this calibre? The lack of a quality fetcher could mean quick ball retention for the opposition and running against a flat-footed defence. Also counter rucking or any aggressive rucking when the Highlanders are in possession will put Aaron Smith in pressure, and the young man is still trying to learn to handle that pressure and still give good service to his flyhalf. The opposition can target the ruck as their method of beating the Highlanders.

Prediction: 7th (3rd in New Zealand Conference)

Due to the strength of the New Zealand conference (and the weakness of the Australian one), I believe that both the Brumbies and Reds will make the playoffs, but at the expense of either the Chiefs or the Highlanders. The team that comes off 2nd best in that battle will be edged out by a team that has the luxury of playing the Force twice. Therefore, due to the loss of Adam Thompson being maybe a bigger factor than the gain of SBW, the uncertainty around the replacement Hoeata, Hardie not being a world class opensider yet and the fact that the Chiefs now know how to get into the playoff places mean that the Highlanders will get agonisingly close to knockout rugby. If, of course, the likes of Thorn and Woodcock stay fit, Slade returns to his best form, Hoeata and Hardie prove me wrong, then Highlanders could go to the top of the overall log. But not adequately replacing Thompson could be the 'Landers downfall.

Squad: Josh Bekhuis, Tim Boys, Liam Coltman, Elliot Dixon, Ma'afu Fia , John Hardie, Jarrad Hoeata , Andrew Hore, Chris King, Jamie Mackintosh, Nasi Manu, Brayden Mitchell, Jake Paringatai, Brad Thorn, Joe Wheeler, Tony Woodcock, Phil Burleigh, Tamati Ellison, Jason Emery, Hosea Gear, Ma'a Nonu, Declan O'Donnell, Kade Poki, Hayden Parker, Buxton Popoalii, Colin Slade, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Fumiaki Tanaka, Shaun Treeby.

Teams that they don't Play: Waratahs and Stormers

HURRICANES

"I think you know the way out of Wellington, Ma'a"

Last Year: Weren't they supposed to suck without their star players like Andrew Hore, Ma'a Nonu, Piri Weeppu and Aaron Cruden? Well, no they didn't, as coach Mark Hammett made sure that the Hurricanes were one of the most enterprising and attacking sides last season and came very close to getting into the playoffs (they were in the playoff places after their last game). Losing only 6 matches last season, the Hurricanes will look at the close loss to the Highlanders in Wellington and a game that they really should not have lost against the Cheetahs at home as the key points dropped. Not many expected the Hurricanes to be that good in any case, but with the element of surprise gone, can the Canes repeat the feat again?

Key Players: Last season, Conrad Smith was very unlucky not to be nominated for IRB World Player of the Year thanks to his efforts for both the Canes and the All Blacks. He is such a valuable playmaker and organiser of the backline that will put his outside backs away in attack, but ensures that he closes down his opposite number in defence too. A player whose value is understated. Smith's ability benefited Julian Savea, who scored 9 tries last season, and 'The Bus' will be looking for more 5-pointers this year too. Andre Taylor's brilliance and ability to beat defenders and counter-attack ensured that he was the top try scorer in the tournament last year with 10 tries (sounds like a certain Christian Cullen), and also benefited Cory Jane who combined well with Taylor last season (watch out for Jane's dangerous handoff!). A dangerous back 3 if ever you saw one! Scrumhalf TJ Perenara's injury in a warm up game during the June test window hiatus was a crucial factor in the Hurricanes falling short of the playoffs. Beauden Barrett will be hoping for quick service from Perenara, so that he could also get attacks going for his backline, or kick deep for territory. Aaron Mauger reincarnated, Tim Bateman's link-up play with much more dangerous attackers, and solid defence means a formidable midfield is formed with Smith.

No doubt, the heart and soul of the Canes

A five star backline, but maybe a 3,5 star pack. Victor Vito will have to set the tone in general play by making the big runs, getting the offloads away and also contributing in defence and at ruck time. The Canes have some young depth at loose forward, with big, bruising blindsider Brad Shields, opensider Karl Lowe (who had a great performance in the 40-point thrashing of the Sharks), Faifili Levave, Jack Lam, but watch out for the "Not-So-Mini-Bus", Ardie Savea (Julian's little brother), whose Sevens experience makes him such a threat with ball in hand, but makes the big hits required and affects the rucks too. Not the best, but locks Jeremy Thrush and Jason Eaton are good enough to help give you acceptable set piece ball and contribute in the loose. Hooker Dane Coles loose play was great last season, but must improve his technique and contribution in the set piece as well. A big signing in Ben Franks has been made to improve the scrum and to help out the likes of Ben May and Jeremy Toomaga-Allen.

This Is the Season. . . That Ben Franks finally becomes the first choice!
Having moved from Christchurch and away from little brother, Owen, it is time for big Ben Franks to be the premier prop in his team and to not play second-fiddle to anybody. In the Hurricanes, he is granted this opportunity and the chance to play for almost 80 minutes every weekend, as Ben tries to put himself back into All Black reckoning. Franks is a very good scrummager that can play at both sides of the scrum. He also contributes in the tight-loose by hitting rucks, making runs with the ball and making the odd bone-crunching tackle. A player that deserves the chance to be the star, Ben will also improve the Hurricanes in the one area they have a glaring weakness in - the scrum.

Surviving the Hurricanes: Not many teams can live with the Hurricanes if you play helter-skelter rugby (apart from the Cheetahs last season). The tight 5 is still a weak point that can be targeted, as Toomaga-Allen and Ben May are two props that can be put under pressure in the scrum and Thrush and Eaton are not the best of lineout jumpers. The opposition should be highly physical at the contact area, as the loose forward trio might be combative, but is also young and could fold under intense aggression and pressure from the opposition. Counter-rucking, big tackles and pick-up-and-drives will be the order of the day to ensure the backline does not receive good ball. Keep the game tight ad physical in order to expose what is a soft underbelly in the Hurricanes forward pack. Make sure you do not kick the ball down the throats of Savea, Jane and Taylor, unless you like standing under your poles and giving 5 points away

Prediction: 10th (4th in New Zealand Conference)
The fact that the Hurricanes have to play each of their country's sides twice could mean a few more losses than last year, but also now that teams will know what to expect from the team and won't be caught off guard, like last season. The likes of Franks, Vito, Smith, Barrett and Jane MUST stay fit for the Hurricanes to be able to reach the playoff places. But with so many teams gunning for those places, and competition as tight as ever, the Hurricanes might be one of the number of teams left outside of the knockout stages. Can Hammett and the Canes get close to the playoffs again?

Squad: Beauden Barrett, Tim Bateman, Samisoni Fisilau, Cory Jane, Rey Lee-Lo, Alapati Leuia, James Marshall, TJ Perenara, Tusi Pisi, Matt Proctor, Julian Savea, Conrad Smith, Chris Smylie, Andre Taylor, James Broadhurst, Dane Coles, Jason Eaton, Ben Franks, Reggie Goodes, Jack Lam, Faifili Levave, Karl Lowe, Motu Matu'u, Ben May, Mark Reddish, Ardie Savea, Brad Shields, Eric Sione, Blade Thomson, Jeremy Thrush, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Victor Vito. 

Teams that they don't Play: Rebels and Sharks