Over to you Pat: Assessing Pat Lambie and the Springboks other 2 Flyhalf Options

BATTLE FOR THE SPRINGBOK 10 JERSEY
(If we conveniently forget what Heyneke Meyer has done to the rest of the backline) The selection of Pat Lambie is the step in the right direction. . . or is it? I'll open up my own dossier on South Africa's 3 flyhalf options.

Who would've thought that the Springboks first-choice flyhalf would end up being a 20-year-old who cannot finish singing the national anthem without crying (we can excuse the first test start, but the second as well??)? Well, the wunderkind Johan Goosen is injured and out of the End of Year Tour, leaving Heyneke Meyer with a flyhalf dilemma. Does he choose his long-time general (Morne Steyn), the kid with the funky hair (Elton Jantjies), or the ambassador for Clear for Men (Pat Lambie)? 

Sorry, but I also wouldn't pick him based on this advert!

While Sharks fans, adolescent girls and MILFs around the country rejoice at Meyer picking Lambie at flyhalf for our Dublin clash with Ireland on Saturday, I am left a little confused. People have been making a huge fuss about Pat Lambie not being picked ahead of Zane (a.k.a. David Luiz, the Nik Nak man, Sideshow Bob) Kirchner for the fullback spot, but he has been picked as the starting FLYHALF for Saturday. Isn't this the wrong position?

It certainly seems to be as Meyer has been talking about Lambie playing fullback the whole year. But after some very good performances in the Currie Cup in the pivot position (his masterful tactical kicking display in a losing effort in the final impressing me the most), Lambie has convinced Meyer to give him a run at flyhalf. Interviews before the tour seem to suggest that Lambie and Steyn will get runs as the starting 10s in the first two tests, with Meyer giving the 10 jersey to the best performer in the 3rd test against England. This sounds fantastically fair, but are we not forgetting a few things?

1). Lambie is a Fullback: Or at least in my opinion he is. There is not much wrong with his all-round play as a flyhalf, but my concern is that he tends to hold on to the ball too much. It seems that Pat's first instinct when the scrumhalf passes the ball to him is to tuck it under his armpit, rather than looking to pass it to the runners around him. This is why I feel that his talents are better utilised at 15 as a 'second 10' coming into the line from broken play. Defences in the 3rd or later phases will give Lambie more time to make a decision. He has the running game to be able to make an impact coming into the line. He rarely misses a tackle with his 'ankle-biting' tackling technique. His passing and short kicking game will be perfect to exploit the gaps from broken play, and with a bit more conditioning on his power and speed, he could rival Israel Dagg as the world's best fullback. While Pat has all the skills to become a good international flyhalf, I believe that he could become a GREAT fullback.

2). How bad must Morne Steyn be to get dropped? Yes, he was dropped (sort of) for the last 2 tests, but Morne Steyn has shown nothing in the Currie Cup to justify being picked over Elton Jantjies on the bench. Personally I would have left him at home to rest, as his dip in form could be the result of playing non-stop rugby for the Bulls AND the Boks without the "luxury" of a major injury since 2009. Sure he has the experience of over 40 caps, has won games for the Boks before and can reinforce Meyer's conservative gameplan better than the other two (which isn't really a positive), but Steyn being in the match 23 is a decision that makes absolutely no sense! He's out of form, he has lost confidence in his running game (standing very deep in the pocket in attack), his distribution and decision-making in attack has been mediocre, he STILL can't tackle to save his life, his tactical kicking has been aimless and his place-kicking has been hovering around 60% this season. Steyn is also not the person you throw on from the bench if you need a try to win, surely? He has as much impact as Graeme Smith had with his "off-spin" bowling. Meyer has described Steyn as his "insurance policy" for Saturday, but apart from his experience, Steyn seems as reliable as a government bond from Greece. Meyer's blind faith in Steyn is immensely flawed, if only there was a young flyhalf in good form that Meyer could pick. . .

3). What Mor(n)e Must Elton Jantjies Do?? Short of killing Morne Steyn, Jantjies has done all that he could to try and convince the Bok coach that he needs to put more faith in him (although I have a theory that it might be because of that questionable hairstyle). Shining star of a bad team? Check. Match-winning performances in Super Rugby and Currie Cup level? You gotcha. Over 80% kicking in Super Rugby this season? Bingo. 8th overall in linebreaks created in Super Rugby 2012 (ahead of both Lambie and Steyn)? Of course! He has the attacking game, he puts players around him into space, his tactical kicking is relatively good and his option-taking in attack is mostly sound. Am I missing something here? He's not the complete player of course; he's one of those kickers that never recover from missing his early kicks (this has improved this season), his defence is questionable (but surely not worse than Steyn's) and sometimes does not control a game as much as he should. But his form, consistency this season and his ability to make an impact should warrant a place on the bench, if not in the match XV! Yeah I said it! Jantjies should start ahead of Pat Lambie on this tour, or at least get an opportunity to start. He's currently the best flyhalf in the country and going forward, should be battling for Johan Goosen for the 10 shirt until the RWC in England. Don't forget that he is the current incumbent of the Bok jersey after coming on for the injured Goosen at Soccer City. Meyer shows an obvious reluctance to play Jantjies in spite of all the evidence in front of him (putting him in some hot water about his reluctance to commit to transformation). Man, if only he was a bit bigger, wore a blue jersey, had a theme song like 'Liefling' or 'Simply the Best' and he was white. It does not make any sense that a player that had a relatively decent game against the All Blacks (well, you cannot blame him for the loss) is now leapfrogged by both Lambie and Steyn into the team. He did not put in a shameful performance like Steyn has done numerous times this season. Give him a chance Heyneke!

"Sorry guys, my auntie cut my hair again"

4. Looking at the Present and the Future: Looking at current form, Lambie showed with his Currie Cup performances that he is probably the in-form flyhalf. But Jantjies has probably been the more consistent performer at 10 (due to Lambie playing 15 for parts of the season as well). Personally I believe that Lambie is our best future prospect at 15, with Jantjies also a player that can take the team forward at 10 in the future. But these plans might be scuppered by Sharks Head Coach John Plumtree (a Kiwi spy, if you ask me). Plumtree wants to play Lambie at 10 for the Sharks from now on, since Freddie Michalak returned to France. This will make picking Lambie at fullback for the Boks very difficult as he cannot play at flyhalf for the Sharks and the fullback in the Boks (sounds like Brent Russel/Ruan Pienaar/Frans Steyn all over again). Therefore it seems that Pat Lambie is also in the flyhalf race for the long term. Short of returning to the irresistible form he had in 2009, Morne Steyn seems like he is losing ground to these 3 young-guns - well to everybody but Meyer anyway.

In a week of controversial selections (picking Jaco Taute and Francois Hougaard out of position while in-form players like Juan de Jongh and Lwazi Mvov stay on the bench) and political pressure from ANC General Secretary Gwede Mantashe about the whiteness of the team (which I did predict would happen in my last blog - just saying *winks*), Meyer probably needs help from a player that you feel he was almost forced to pick. Lambie goes into this game with a lot of expectation on his shoulders and now is the time for him to deliver. While I don't think he will reach the heights of a Dan Carter, it is Pat's chance to prove me (and Meyer) wrong and have a tour that truly puts him near that world-class bracket - and get the win that the coach probably needs this weekend! It's over to you Pat Lambie, the chance to grab that Bok 10 jersey is all yours.

IRELAND vs SOUTH AFRICA PREDICTION
After the New Zealand test, you could be forgiven for thinking South Africa had little chance of beating a team with Brian O'Driscoll, Sean O'Brien, Paul O'Connel, Rob Kearney, Stephen Ferris and Rory Best at the Aviva Stadium. But all the players mentioned are injured. This makes the Boks the favourites for this test. The Boks has a settled forward pack that has played a few tests together now. While Cian Healy, Saffer and former Cheetahs hooker Richardt Strauss and Mike Ross should give Beast, Dr Jannie and Strauss' cousin, Adriaan some problems, our loose trio of Duane Vermulem, Francois Louw and Willem Alberts holds the advantage over a relatively inexperienced Irish trio - and this is where the game will be won. If Ireland dominate the ruck and tackle area battles, the likes of Keith Earles, Tommy Bowe, Andrew Trimble and Simon Zebo will have a field day exposing the defensive frailties of Taute and Hougaard and a Jean de Villiers not at 100% because of his hamstring. Johnny Sexton's tactical kicking is of a high standard and could ask questions of our back 3. On that note, between Pienaar, Lambie, Taute and Kirchner, our kicking game should not be aimless hoofs upfield as we don't need to give an open invitation to the Irish back 3 to run back at us. The battle between the Golden Oldies, D'Arcy and De Villiers should be closely watched as well. We might lose out in the scrums, but the lack of O'Brien and Ferris will mean that Flo and Vermulem could ensure quick ball from our rucks and slowing down Irish momentum as well. Alberts and Etzebeth will carry the ball forward the whole day and somebody PLEASE give the ball to JP Pietersen in space!

Ireland can definitely beat the Boks at home, but I'm backing the Boks to win by 5, even if they are trying to trick us by wearing All Black!

You'll have to wake up early in the morning to fool us!

WENGER OUT?
This blog cannot end without me talking about my beloved Arsenal. It seems that a growing faction of the fans want Arsene Wenger to be sacked, but let's be realistic:

Wenger is still one of the top managers in the world. Fact. And not all of the club's problems are of his own making. Between Ivan Gazidis (CEO), Peter Hill-Wood (chairman) and Stan Kroenke (owner), it seems as if Arsenal is being run only to make a profit for them rather than winning trophies for the club. Our transfer policy of making a surplus every damn transfer window and our wage structure based on equity (where Seb Squillaci earns the same as Jack Wilshere and Andrei Arshavin is our top earner) should definitely be looked at. The market has changed, and players like Walcott can get 100k Pounds from most other big clubs.

Wenger IN, but his"Sleeping Bag" top OUT!!!

IF (and only if) Wenger leaves, only a manager with European experience who has won trophies will be good enough to replace him. The problem is not many of those managers are available. We must not go down the road of Liverpool of hiring the Roy Hodgsons and Brendan Rodgers of the world if we want to maintain our top 4 placing, win trophies and attract top talent. This new manager must also be able to work on a tight budget or force the board to change its ways, so somebody like Jose Mourinho or Pep Guardiola is even more unrealistic.David Moyes or Harry Redknapp perhaps? Here's a name: Mircea Lucescu from Shaktar Donetsk. His team shows great organisation and structure in both attack and deence and he has done very well with a team void of superstar names. He has won the Ukranian league multiple times, qualified for Champions League and his team is probably one of the top 16 in Europe  (he even coached Inter Milan in the late 1990s as well). He should be the sort of manager we should look at to replace Le Professor, BUT only IF Wenger fails to make the top 4 this season. I don't think sacking Wenger will do us any good (lets sack the board rather), we will be a poorer club without him, especially if we pick the wrong successor.

*Thank you to rugbystats.com.au for the stats